Agreed, it's a tossup. I could accept either version. My guess is that the writer used "would" because the treaty is not yet ratified therefore "would" indicates an expectiation.
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RotterBut changing the EU treaty would require the unanimous agreement of all 27 member states' governments. It is not clear how many would back France in the dispute.I think that changing would to will in these sentences gives the impression that the related actions are likely to happen sooner. That seems to me to be OK in the first sentence,