I know there is a tone of threads started on the point and I've analyzed them, but we, non-natives, wonder what nuances these two have when the general rules do not apply as is the case here.
I- The change will affect rich and poor alike. II- The change is going to affect rich and poor alike.
Possible interpretations:
I- The speaker is uttering a mere statement of fact and is not focusing on the immediate results of the change. His/Her view probably stems from his / her intuitions or life experience. The change has not started yet. II- The speakers thinks the results of the change will be seen in a short period of time. He/She is basing his/her opinion on some current evidence. The change has just started.
Do you agree with my interpretations? Are there any other that you have in mind?
I have two questions:
1. Do you think that the change taking effect / not taking effect is a valid argument differentiating will and be going to? If yes, can it be put forward that II is wrong as there is no evidence that the change has started?
2. Do you think there is a difference in the degree of certainty of I and II on the part of the speaker? I mean which one is more certain that the change will affect rich and poor alike? Which one has a more forceful tone? Thanks.
Top answer
As you say, this is a perennial question. I find myself unable to see in those sentences any of the distinctions that you mention.
— GPY
As you say, this is a perennial question.
I find myself unable to see in those sentences any of the distinctions that you mention.
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The only difference I detect in such cases is a very slight difference in what I call "tone".
will affect strikes me as an official and objective assessment of the situation. The writer (or speaker) has no stake in the situation. He's more or less just reading the news on television. It's nothing to him whether the envisioned future described comes about or not.