I am not sure this is the correct way to approach your question. Normally, when we deal with a 3rd conditional sentence, for example: If I had stolen the 10 million from the company account, I would have been basking in the sun somewhere in the Bahamas ( But none of these had happened ), we are talking about something in the counter-factual aspect. On the other side of the spectrum, like your example, that something indeed happened.
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hktraderOtherwise it could not have followed the orderly path ..."have" after a modal verb expresses the past.what there isWhy is there a "have" after "could not"?