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Usenet Posted 17 years ago
Usage

Weather Forecast Percentages

The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening."
It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?

"Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything." - Ivana Trump
  

Top answer

[/nq] Odds are good that you will get wet if you go out walking this evening. Probably the meteorologists are looking at the barometer (to see if the mercury is falling), the temperature, the humidity, and the huge swirling masses of highs, lows, and hot and cold waves coming into your area. After considering those factors, they look at the history of the past nn years to see how often it has rained in the afternoon/evening of the same day in those years.

— Usenet

  • [/nq] Odds are good that you will get wet if you go out walking this evening.
  • Probably the meteorologists are looking at the barometer (to see if the mercury is falling), the temperature, the humidity, and the huge swirling masses of highs, lows, and hot and cold waves coming into your area.
  • After considering those factors, they look at the history of the past nn years to see how often it has rained in the afternoon/evening of the same day in those years.
  • That helps with figuring the odds.
  • Then they close their eyes and "guess".
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67 Answers
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[nq:1]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?[/nq]
Odds are good that you will get wet if you go out walking this evening. Probably the meteorologists are looking at the barometer (to see if the mercury is falling), the temperature, the humidity, and the huge swirling masses of
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[nq:2]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent ... sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?[/nq]
[nq:1]Odds are good that you will get wet if you go out walking this evening. Probably the meteorologists are looking ... get missed. Otherwise, if it looks to become overcast, they allow for a slight dip in temps to cause precipitation.[/nq]
A fascinat
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[nq:1]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?[/nq]
It's a bit ambiguous. Seventy percent for which listener, since the tv signal probably covers hundreds of square miles? How much rain qualifies to say it actually rained, a bit of drizzle or a few millimeters? What exact time li
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[nq:2]Odds are good that you will get wet if you ... allow for a slight dip in temps to cause precipitation.[/nq]
[nq:1]A fascinating insight.[/nq]
I feel a Winnie-the-Pooh moment coming on.

Ian
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[nq:2]Odds are good that you will get wet if you ... allow for a slight dip in temps to cause precipitation.[/nq]
[nq:1]A fascinating insight.[/nq]
There really ought to be an emoticon for that.

Laura
(emulate St. George for email)
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[nq:1]After considering those factors, they look at the history of the past nn years to see how often it has ... get missed. Otherwise, if it looks to become overcast, they allow for a slight dip in temps to cause precipitation.[/nq]
Reminds me of a cartoon (by Kliban, I think): A TV news anchor intros a weatherman. "And now here's the weather with our weather ***."

"Fiction writing i
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[nq:1]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening."[/nq]
Let me make it a little harder. "There's a 50 per cent chance of scattered showers today." Does that mean there is a 50% chance of no showers, and if the alternative happens, if there are scattered showers they will be scatter and only affect part of the area? So actually no specific place has a 50%
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[nq:1]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean? "Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything." - Ivana Trump[/nq]
Several years ago, a local TV weather forecaster was asked that question and answered it! "A 70% chance of rain" means that it will rain in 70% of the ar
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[nq:1]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?[/nq]
It is quite likely you will get wet if you go out without your Mac or Unbrella

The Canadian Curmudgeon (in Calgary)
Save our precious CO2 - plant many trees
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[nq:2]The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent ... sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?[/nq]
[nq:1]It is quite likely you will get wet if you go out without your Mac or Unbrella[/nq]
Umbrella - damned cat !

The Canadian Curmudgeon (in Calgary)
Save our precious CO2 - plant many trees
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