2 would roughly mean that the only way to prevent the speaker from being surprised is Tom having an accident. 3 would mean more or less that the speaker will be surprised if some other person than Tom has an accident. Of course 1 seems to work best in your context.
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H MWhich means that this sentence ( 2) if not Tom does something... ) doesn't make sence??Well, that hardly makes any sense. I had to rack my brains to figure out what it could technically mean. Just use "if Tom doesn't do something" as I'm pretty sure that's what you want.
H MI understand "unless = if not"Not always. In "surprised if" it works a little differently, and "unless" doesn't work.