Highly debatable question. I've never found anything official that says that a negative in the first verb in this situation implies more doubt than an affirmative verb does. ] You could probably raise quite a discussion in the Linguistics section.
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WowenglishI wonder if there is a subtle difference between "1" and "2".I doubt it. Nevertheless, you should note that with the verbs think and want, and probably others, the negation typically floats to the left and ends up in the first clause even if it actually applies to the second.