The meaning of the two underlined sentences and their semantic roles

The meaning of the two underlined sentences and their semantic roles

The passage below comes from a book, Mastermind How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes.

http://www.slideshare.net/RajivNandalal/mastermind-how-to-think-like-sherlock-holmes-52994551

page 61-62

The more complicated a concept or idea, or the less obviously true or false (There are no poisonous snakes in Maine. True or false? Go! But even that can be factually verified. How about: The death penalty is not as harsh a punishment as life imprisonment. What now?), the more effort is required. And it doesn’t take much for the process to be disrupted or to not occur altogether. If we decide that the statement sounds plausible enough as is (sure; no poisonous snakes in Maine; why not?), we are more likely than not to just let it go.

I'd like to ask a question regarding the two underlined sentences.

In the first underlined one, what does 'it' refer to?
It represents 'to be disrupted or to not occur altogether'.
(Am I right?)

And what does 'the process' refer to? It seems to mean 'the process of verification'.
(Am I right?)

And does 'much' refer to 'much effort'?
(Am I right?)

The author proposed this sentence in question to present the alternative to the preceding sentence; more complicating idea takes more effort, so if you don't want any painstaking, let any idea 'be disrupted or not occur altogether'.
(Am I right?)

Questions about the last sentence: so the author try to show the example of dismissing an idea for saving effort. Whenever a question is posed, 'we are more likely to just let it go (that not to let it go)'.

Do you agree with my train of thought?

(And am I right in paraphrasing
'we are more likely thannot to just let it go'
into
'we are more likely to just let it go thannot to let it go'?)

Regards.