Whether it's sunny or not has nothing to do with it. Use the first one. On the face of it, there's no reason to believe that this is a case involving a hypothetical situation -- or rather a situation that requires an "unreal" condition.
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New2grammarthe possibility of raining was very slimThe way I see it, it's not the lessened probability (of rain, or of whatever) that makes the difference needed to trigger the use of the second conditional pattern. It's the mental movement into an envisioned world, often called an "unreal" world. I realize that that's almost no help. You're right that con