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The coming decimation of America’s shale-oil firms could eventually lead to renewed dependence on Saudi oil. American production is predicted to fall to 10m barrels a day, around half the country’s pre-pandemic consumption. In the meantime near-universal anti-Saudi feeling in Washington is putting the bilateral relationship under great strain. Last month Republican senators in oil-producing states, who had been almost the Saudis’ last defenders on the Hill, turned furiously against the kingdom. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota and Dan Sullivan of Alaska introduced legislation to withdraw American troops and missile-defence systems if it did not cut its oil production. Reports this week that a fleet of laden Saudi tankers was en route to oil-glutted America caused fresh fury. Mr Trump suggested he might close the country’s ports to it. The notion of American-Saudi co-operation to reorder the Middle East had rarely looked more fanciful.

Meanwhile a region whose stability America has considered supremely important for seven decades is experiencing two black swans in one swoop. Oil-poor countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain are facing a health-care crisis which their oil-rich neighbours would in normal times send them cash to stave off. Yet the Saudis, in need of an oil price of around $80 a barrel to balance their budge, are focused on fiscal problems at home. A normal American administration might be expected to rally multilateral agencies to make up the shortfall for the poorer Arab states. Mr Trump is instead trying to defund the World Health Organisation.

This (1)represents a threat of instability that Iran will try to exploit. Though badly afflicted by the coronavirus, (2)it shows no sign of reducing its operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. Meanwhile Israel could soon start annexing the West Bank. All in all, (3)the chances of a regional blowout, which America will either be drawn into or castigated for neglecting, are rising again.

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