Subjunctive mood 2

Hi guys, thank you always.
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Why does anything happen? That’s a complicated question to answer, but it is a more sensible question than “Why do bad things happen?” This is because there is no reason to single out bad things for special attention unless bad things happen more often than we (1)would expect them to, by chance; or unless we think there should be a kind of natural justice, which (2)would mean that bad things only happen to bad people. Do bad things happen more often than we (3)ought to expect by chance alone?
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(1) Why is ‘would’ used here? Is it suggesting we don’t really expect bad things to happen by chance alone? Can’t we say just ‘we expect them to’?

(2) Does this ‘would’ mean that ‘natural justice’ don’t actually exist?
Is ‘which would mean that …’ a hypothetic explanation?

(3) Why is ‘ought to’ put here? Why can’t we say just ‘we expect’?
Does it mean it is natural we expect them happen by chance alone?