We have your house surrounded. You can't escape. So what happens/is going to happen/will happen is one of two things. Either you come out here with your hands up or we're going to come in there and drag you out ourselves.
What is the more natural way to put this?
I would use 'will happen' as it's shorter and more natural in speech. '.
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I would use 'will happen' as it's shorter and more natural in speech. I would also say ' it is going to happen' is natural, but would probably shorten it to 'it's...'.