Use 2 and 4. 'Should have' often prepares the reader for a negative, eg It should have fallen to the floor, but it didn't. You might also look at 'was supposed to'.
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navitasanWhich are correctThey are all correct. The ones with 'should' have the flavor of "This was expected to happen". The ones with 'had to' have the flavor of "Nothing could have stopped this from happening".