I'm not sure I agree that one is more tightly connected to reality , but my answer to your basic question is that probability is more likely than possibility. It is possible that the war will end this week, but I think it more probable that it will last until next month.
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materinaduszkawhich of the notions: probability or possibility, is closer to facts actually happening in the future?Neither. However, "probability" has primacy in that "possibility" can be defined in terms of "probability". Whenever something is possible, it has a probability that is not zero. Things that are impossible have a probability of zero. Future