must may might could can --- probability

Question

I'd like to learn the modal verbs of probability.
I put 5 sentences in the order that number 1 suggests almost 100 % sure it is true, and number 5 is least true.
Is this order correct?

1. It must rain tonight because/ but ...
2. It may rain tonight because/ but ...
3. It might rain tonight because/ but ...
4. It could rain tonight ...
5. It can rain tonight ...

And if it isn't too much bother, I'd appreciate if you could complete the sentences, so that I could understand this much better.
Thank you.

CalifJim · Accepted Answer

MakiasanI'd like to learn the modal verbs of probability.

There is no such thing as a modal verb of probability.

There are epistemic modals (i.e., modals of logic) and deontic modals (i.e., modals of interpersonal volition).

I believe you are interested in the modals of logic.

See

Language is not mathematics, and there is nothing to be gained by trying to assign probability values such as 25%, 50%, 95%, 100% to modal verbs.

See also
And

CJ

Makiasan · Answer

She may be in her room.

She might be in her room.

She could be in her room.

If you want a simple but arbitrary rule to use when trying to choose among them in your own conversation, say might and forget the other two.

In American English, the difference between may and might is one of register. may occurs in official announcements and scientific papers, for example, and might occurs more often in ordinary conversation. (Percentages of probability have nothing to do with it!)

The puppy is thin; he [might / may / could] be [hungry / lost / a stray].

That music sounds like a symphony; it [might / may / could] be by Mozart.

Susan says that the answer is 67, and she [might / may / could] be right.

Thank you so much for the link, CalifJim. I'll use 'might' in these sentences in ordinary conversations, even when native English speakers might use 'could'.

Maki

must may might could can --- probability

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