In my humble Finnish opinion I should think almost always means exactly the same as I think . It's mostly British, as far as I know. CB
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MrPernickety"I should think" means "it's highly possible"I would not put it that way. Your other suggestion "by the look of it" is closer. I'd say it's more like noting that something is obvious, that there is a good reason to believe it or expect it. It may indicate that the associated remark is an understatement. Note the stress pattern in the following