Here I don't understand to what refer "it would"?
The era of untrammeled U.S. military superiority is over. If the United States delays implementing a new approach, it risks losing a war to China or Russia— or backing down in a crisis because it fears it would—with devastating consequences for America’s interests.
it refers to The United States. or backing down in a crisis because it fears it would >>>> or The United States backing down in a crisis because it (The USA) fears it would lose a war to China or Russia
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it refers to The United States.
or backing down in a crisis because it fears it would>>>> or The United States backing down in a crisis because it (The USA) fears it would lose a war to China or Russia