Is selling a script this dismal?

Question

A friend sent me a link to this yesterday
http://www.thestream.tv/watch.php?v=959
a video interview with the people at scriptshark. I have to say that after watching the video interview the notion of selling a screenplay to Hollywood, and then having it made into a film, seems like the odds of winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning on the same day. Very depressing.
Is it really that bad, or is what I hear in the video hyperbole? The video makes is seem like even if you write a great script it is still next to impossible to get it noticed; and if even if do sell a screenplay to a studio/producer, then there is only a 1 in 10 chance it will go the distance and be made into a produced film. What is the fact versus hyperbole?
Because if there is truth to a great script standing little chance of being sold and produced, then that has me thinking of another route (and only if my script was excellent as judged by multiple sources) indie self production. Thoughts?

Usenet · Accepted Answer

[nq:1]A friend sent me a link to this yesterday http://www.thestream.tv/watch.php?v=959 a video interview with the people at scriptshark. I have ... is only a 1 in 10 chance it will go the distance and be made into a produced film. [/nq]
Not having seen the video yet, I can only say... yes. It's every bit as bad as they say, and worse. There are just WAY too many people out here trying to write and sell scripts, for the number of movies that will be made each year. WAY too many people already in the business, professionally, for the jobs there are to fill. Tens of thousands of spec screenplays every year, all competing for maybe a thousand films produced (give or take), most of which will be written on assignment by people who've already done this professionally.

So, do you give up?The question is, do you want to write? Do you want to write movies? If the work itself isn't interesting, fulfilling, its own reward, then you should just give it up and write short stories. They, at least, are a finished product unto themselves, and while they might never be published there's still a satisfaction in writing them. If you're writing just to see the finished film, then you might try indie self- production but remember it's VERY expensive and the odds of selling the finished product - while substantially better than the odds of selling the screenplay - are still vanishingly slim.

There are more people making movies than there are people to watch them all, and most indie self productions are beyond ****. Plus, filmmaking is an entirely different discipline than writing - it's all about large numbers of people, organization, lighting, honing fine chunks of the story (a sentence or even a word at a time) and then repeating that chunk, over and over again. Or rather, getting other people to repeat that chunk, over and over again.

Writing screenplays is to producing an indie feature as ballet dancing is to a monster truck rally.

If the ultimate goal is just to see your story up on its feet, then indie self production is a way - albeit an expensive one - to achieve that goal. If the ultimate goal is to write the next summer blockbuster and reap the rewards of that, then indie self production is probably a waste of your time - like learning to pilot a jetski as a step toward getting your pilot's license.

Life Copntinues, Despite
Evidence to the Contrary
Steven

Usenet · Answer

That's about right... it's close to impossible to sell a script, then a 1 in 10 chance it gets made, and then it turns out ****.

But here's the problem with self production - you make the script they didn't want to buy into a movie... and then try to sell it to the very same people who didn't want the script. How can that possibly work? My advice is always to self produce the script everyone wants to buy, so that when it's a finished film - all of those distribs who were interested in the script will bid against each other to buy the film.

Google "Mark Gill Sky Falling" and read the article about the state of indie films today - it's easier to sell a script than a film.

Now, if you don't ever intend on selling the film or having it distributed in any way, and just want to make it to show it in your living room to friends, that's cool. I have a friend who does this - his movies aren't on Blockbuster shelves - they aren't anywhere! But he doesn't care - he rents a theater and shows the movies to friends and crew and people from his MySpace page. He makes films for fun.

Everyone uses the basketball analogy, because it's a good one - you shoot hoops with friends, maybe you played basketball in high school... but that's not making a living at it. You need to play at a Kobe level if you want to play professionally. You need to be the guy everyone in the NBA wants to sign. Now, how many people sho shoot hoops play at an NBA level? Even if you played in College, not every college player gets signed. Only a handful do. This is not an easy business to break into.
But somewhere on some playground there's a kid shooting hoops who will go all the way to the NBA. It's not impossible - in fact, it must happen, or there'd be no NBA. You just want to be the person who has developed their skills enough that you're that kid.

- Bill

Usenet · Answer

[nq:1]That's about right... it's close to impossible to sell a script, then a 1 in 10 chance it gets made, ... then try to sell it to the very same people who didn't want the script. How can that possibly work?[/nq]
The thing is, you're NOT selling the film to the very same people who didn't want the script.
You're trying to sell the script to a production company, who will then raise a lot of money to produce the script as a movie. You're trying to sell the movie to a distribution company, who will use their own capital (generally speaking) to make copies, buy ads, and generally, y'know, distribute the movie. It's a **** of a lot cheaper to distribute a movie than it is to produce one, and there's a lot less risk involved. Not that it's risk-free by any means, but the distrib can simply look at the finished product and decide if it's worth the money to send it out into the marketplace, and - and this is the important part for a little self-produced indie - to what extent.

Here's a real-world case-in-point. One of the films I've worked on cost in the general low-seven-figures range. It's pretty crappy, all in all; it was a vanity project for most of the people involved. They weren't able to find a home for it, for anything like the return they needed to even break even, let alone turn a profit. They did, however, find a home for it at a real loss - but it was better than just leaving it on the shelf or cutting up for guitar picks. There were a lot of things that could have been done cheaper, had they known going in that it was going to go DTV and at a fairly low level, and the other films in that distrib's catalogue quite oviously took that route from the get-go.The company that picked up the film for distribution was never, ever, in a million years, going to so much as consider making the original script into a film. Even though they were - nominally - in the business of producing as well as distributing, at the time, it just wasn't anything they were going to take a risk on. Certainly not a risk that size. So far as I know, the company is still in business, though the last time I was in contact with them, they'd given up on production altogether.

Bring 'em your script and they won't even read it - that's not the business they're in anymore. Bring 'em the film you've produced yourself, from that script, and they'll be more than happy to take a look, and if they like what they see, they'll buy the right to distribute it.

Life Continues, Despite
Evidence to the Contrary
Steven

Usenet · Answer

[nq:1]Not having seen the video yet, I can only say... yes. It's every bit as bad as they say, and worse. There are just WAY too many people out here trying to write and sell scripts, for the number of movies that will be made each year. WAY too many people already in the business, professionally, for the jobs there are to fill. Tens of thousands of spec screenplays every year, all competing for maybe a thousand films...[/nq]
Maybe it is not as bad as we might think. First, where do the numbers come from for estimating the number of writers and scripts circulating? I hear so many estimates, but what are the sources of those estimates? Okay, anyhow, for the sake of discussion, one estimate I have heard is there are about 50,000+
'screenwriters' (real or wannabees), and let's say on average they have written 3 screenplays each. That is 150,000 scripts trying to be sold. All voodoo statistics, granted. To make 1,000 films each year. On face value that gives a sw a 1:150 shot at a sale, pretty lousy odds.But, I repeatedly read from the gurus (Hauge, Field, Sager) that 90% of screenplays submitted do not even have proper formatting, another 5% properly formatted do not have proper story structure. Now we are down to 5% of 150,000 scripts. 7,500 scripts. But of those, how many are great quality stories? Voodoo again, let's say 1/3. Now we are at 2,500 quality scripts for 1,000 movies made each year. 1:2.5 chances of a sale. I like those odds a lot better than 1:150.

And if a writer keeps writing a screenplay each year to show agents they are not a one trick pony, writes quality screenplays, the odds keep getting better. Along with self-promotion efforts. Voodoo I know, just doing some thought experiments and number crunching. The key of course, as with the NBA players someone else mentioned, is to shoot hoops better than most, to have a great script. Without that you areat the 1:150 odds. With several great scripts, the odds become almost a certain sale with time, perhaps several sales.

Or not, maybe I am babbling and it is all incorrect. Sigh.

Usenet · Answer

[nq:2]Not having seen the video yet, I can only say... yes. It's every bit as bad as they say, and worse. There are just WAY too many people out here trying to write and sell scripts, for the number of movies that will be made each year. WAY too many people already in the business, professionally, for the jobs there are to fill. Tens of thousands of spec screenplays every year, all competing for maybe a thousand films[/nq]
[nq:1]... Maybe it is not as bad as we might think. First, where do the numbers come from for estimating ... a certain sale with time, perhaps several sales. Or not, maybe I am babbling and it is all incorrect. Sigh.[/nq]
I agree with you. They say the majority of screenplays will never get made. But I suspect the majority of screenplays are ****, and strangely, the screenwriters don't seem to know it. I have to believe that if a person has talent, dedication and is a good self-critic, he'll have a reasonable chance of eventually selling a script. That's why I spend my time learning to write well instead of entering contests. Don't ever let anyone tell you you're a failure. Find out for yourself!

Usenet · Answer

@reader1.panix.com:
[nq:1]But somewhere on some playground there's a kid shooting hoops who will go all the way to the NBA. It's ... NBA. You just want to be the person who has developed their skills enough that you're that kid. - Bill[/nq]
For me, it's all about story. If I have a good story, I write it. One of these days, it'll be good enough and land on the right desk. Swoosh.

Usenet · Answer

[nq:1]A friend sent me a link to this yesterday http://www.thestream.tv/watch.php?v=959 a video interview with the people at scriptshark. I have ... thinking of another route (and only if my script was excellent as judged by multiple sources) indie self production. Thoughts?[/nq]
If you've got something good to sell there's deals out there. Not necessarily deals that fall under the pay scale of the WGA, but you can find something. People do all the time.
Often, someone who wants to do an independent film will pay you ten percent of the budget for a script.
I have an acquaintance that I met on this newsgroup who got paid around
20 grand for a script (plus room and board). The man who paid him was adoctor he met on this newsgroup, when he responded to a post "looking for a screenwriter".
My brother and I helped this screenwriter out over a couple of rough spots and after the deal with the first script fell through the doctor gave me a phone call and asked if I had anything to pitch.

I sent him an idea (an outline whatever it was 39 pages) and he liked it. He sent me some notes and told me he'd like to proceed and offered me between 15 and 20 grand, depending on the budget, with the assumption that it would take three to four months to finish (including rewrites). Half up front half on completion of the script.

At the same time I got offered a job to install the phone system at the Marine base in 29 Palms, which paid more and was longer term. So I took the phone job (I'm a phone man).
I've had other offers and I've never really looked for them. My point is, there's still deals out there you just have to hustle them, and you never, never burn any bridges.
A lot of the guys who were* on this newsgroup, at the time, blew this doctor off. True he wasn't a "real" production company and wasn't offering *real WGA pay, but 4 or 5 grand a month for writing still beats flipping burgers at McDonald's.

Is selling a script this dismal?

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