I vote for the mixed version - #3.
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magixoWhat are you actually saying when you say I'll give it back tomorrow? How would I change the meaning of the sentence (*) if I said I am going to give it back tomorrow instead of I'll give it back tomorrow?You're saying that you plan/intend to give it back tomorrow. These are your definitions 3 & 4.
Mister MicawberI'll give it back tomorrow is a flat statement of future fact as an inevitable result of some present situation (here, the speaker's commitment to do so). It is a stronger assurance than 'I'm going to' as a plan.Hi, MrM,