1. "It is likely that he ..." is correct, but your sentence is not natural. You could say "It is likely that he will be/arrive late again".
2. "It is likely for him to ..." is not right.
3. "He is likely that ..." is not right.
4. "He is likely to ..." is correct, but your sentence may not be the most natural way of saying it. You could say "He is likely to be/arrive lat