Guessing - emphasizes that it's going on now. Otherwise, no difference in meaning.
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Hoister"I guess you X" - maybe you do, maybe you don't XYes. Something like that.
Hoister"I'm guessing you X" - I expect that you do X,Something like your first choicit would be best if you do X.
Hoister I'd like to know the reason of using "I'm guessing" instead of "I guess" here.I guess it's ten o'clock. (This is my sense of it, without deliberating.)