I think the reason not to write 'will' here is that the uncertainity around Greek debt default. Correct. "would" is use here to express the expectation that a given event will result if the events in question happen.
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RotterPlease look at the blue colored words of 'would' in the above.Yes. It is as if a big IF-clause were hanging over the entire paragraph: If Greece were to default ....
I think the reason not to write 'will' here is that the uncertainity around Greek debt default. Nobody knows whether they will default on their debt repayments.