To my ear, in this sentence will expresses a high degree of confidence -- a thought which can be paraphrased by surely, doubtless, most likely/probably, or very likely/probably . This is the will of probability, as in That will be John calling upon hearing the phone ring. ] experienced growing pains in the early days.
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would you say "John calling" is a noun phrase almost identical to "his calling" where "calling" is a genitive functioning as a noun?No. There is nothing genitive going on here. It's (among other things) a Whiz-Deletion. That will be John who is calling. So calling is part of the verb phrase is calling. The underlying relative clause seems
would you say "hearing" isn't a participle in a subordinate clause, but rather it is a noun phrase?No, I don't think we can call it a noun phrase, but maybe others have another opinion about it.