1. I will be surprised if he confess es . 2.
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1. I will be surprised if he confesses.
2. I would be surprised if he confessed.
3. I would be surprised if he confesses.
Normally, pattern 1 sounds more definite, and pattern 2 sounds hypothetical. However, since here you are in any case describing something that you think is unlikely, there is less difference. Patt