CHances vs odds

Question

Which do you say and is the sentence correct?1 My chances/odds of winning are smaller than my chances of losing2 My chances of winning are smaller than those of losing.Is 2 correct?thanks

Ferdis · Accepted Answer

Be consistent, and don't compare odds to chances; hence, use 'chances' in (1). I believe the sentences are correct. I'm not quite sure about that 'my chances / those' combination in the second, but I think it is technically correct. However, it sounds a bit like you are comparing two different things: your (individual) chances of winning and the (general) chances of losing. Therefore I like the first better.

Note that there is a subtle difference between chances and odds: 'odds' represent a ratio of probability, such as 3:1 (three to one; out of 4 times it will happen 3 times and one time not), while 'chances' represent a direct probability, such as 75%, which equals 3:1 odds.

In gambling, the pay-outs are usually given in odds (3:1 means that for every coin you bet, three will be returned to you in case you win). The chances of winning are usually lower.

CalifJim · Answer

alc24Is 2 correct?

Yes, but I think most people would say "my chances" again instead of "those". "those" usually contrasts with "the", not "my".

CJ

Anonymous · Answer

Chance defines the number of possible outcomes. Odds defines the probablility of one outcome over another based on historical data.

The chance of a coin landing heads or tails is 50% because there are only two possible outcomes.

The odds of which way the coin lands can vary depending how many parameters you choose to figure into the equation. Things like how many times in the last 1000 flips did it land heads up, if the wind was blowing, who was flipping the coin, etc..

To answer your question, your chance of winning a $100M lottery is 50%. The odds you'll win a $100M lottery are 1 in 100 million. And then factor in the data like have you ever won the lottery before, has anyone you've ever known or anyone they've ever known won the lottery, are any winning tickets ever sold where you're buying them, is your unlucky cousin the person buying the ticket. Is your starting quarterback on injured reserve - ignore that one...

Clive · Answer

Hi,

Things like how many times in the last 1000 flips did it land heads up . . .

H'mmm. My understanding is that the past flips do not influence the current flip.
ie the coin has no memory.

Clive

Anonymous · Answer

Coins may not be perfectly balanced due to ingraving, or other mitigating factors, which over time can skew the odds slightly in favor of the lighter side of the coin.

Anonymous · Answer

To better address your statement, you are correct in saying past flips do not influence the current flip.  Your chance of calling the flip correctly always remains 50% because there are still only two possile outcomes, regardless of the number of times it's flipped.  For the first flip of that coin, your odds are 1 in 2 (50%) that you called it correctly, matching your chance, because you have no idea yet if one side of the coin is favored over the other.  So betting either way is as likey to win as the the other.  However, as time goes by, you may notice that the coin lands one side up more than the other.  As a coin-flipping gambler, if you were able to take advantage of historical information of that nature, you'd realize that you'd make more money than you'd lose by always betting on that one side of the coin.  Your chance never changes but the odds of you predicting the outcome correctly will have increased in your favor.  You'll win some, you'll lose some, but over time you'll have won more often than not because you paid attention to that parameter.  A coin does not require memory of past flips to have its 'probable' outcome influenced by these the parameters.

CHances vs odds

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