I think I say "couldn't" in this context more often than "can't". The two are virtually identical; however, "can't" is more objective and concerned with the laws of logic, I would say. "He can't have seen the movie" sounds like a detective's remark, a logical deduction from other evidence in the case, and so does "He must not have seen the movie", another equivalent!
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komountain For me, a little bit of blurriness persists between the two.
Can anybody draw a clean-cut line between them? Pleeeese help.
(1)He can't have seen the movie.
(2)He couldn't have seen the movie.
(3)He can't have seen the movie last month.
(4)He couldn't have seen the movie last month.
(5)He can't have arrived by now.
(6)He could